Investment Channels – UK and India

Contributed By: Meera Siva, CFA

Friday, July 6, 2018, Chennai

The relation between UK and India, for trade and money, has a long history. UK and India continue to work closely in cross-border investments. In this talk, Sam Prasanth Kumar, Prosperity Adviser at British Deputy High Commission, shared the various programs for investment and collaboration between the two countries in various domains, including fintech.

Sam fosters relationship and facilitates partnerships between UK and India public and private sector institutions in Ease of Doing Business, Smart Cities and Financial Services, including FinTech. He is well experienced in working with non-profit organizations. He holds a Masters’ degree in Social Work and a Bachelors’ degree in Commerce from Loyola College, Chennai.

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Big partner

UK investments into India accounts for 1 in 20 jobs in the formal sector. Likewise, India invests more into the UK than it does into the rest of the EU combined. Last year, Indian firms created the second largest number of new jobs in the UK (Tata Global Beverages, HCL, Reliance, Axis Bank, ICICI, TVS logistics, HCL Insurance BPO, Dr Reddy’s Laboratory, to name a few).

 

Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry data shows that UK goods exports to India grew by 31.2% in FY 2017-18, at $4.8 billion while imports from India to UK was up 13.6% at $9.7 billion. Research collaboration between UK-India has been on an exponential growth track – from almost 1 million in 2008 to around £400 million by 2021.

 

There have been many successful partnerships at the company level. For example, Hero Global Design (Hero Cycle) and 42 Gears Mobility Systems from India setup operations in the UK. Westminster Healthcare and Dental Nursing academy of New College Lanarkshire established operations in India. There is also interest from Indian companies to raise funds in the UK through Masala bonds.

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Many programs

There are many awards, grants and programs that help foster relationship between the two countries. One big initiative is Chevening Fellowships/Scholarships. Others of interest include Tech Rocketship awards and the recently launched FinTech Rocketship Awards for entrepreneurs. Another interesting award is the India Emerging Twenty (IE20), created by London & Partners and launched by the Mayor of London. Its mission is to discover 20 of India’s most innovative and high-growth companies to help them grow to London.

 

Some of the channels for partnerships through investment include the Pontaq’s UK-India Innovation Fund and Innovation Lab. Business partnerships are also forged through various groups and organizations such as various City Councils such as London, Manchester as well as business groups. Many cities have City Councils that offer various incentives and information sharing programs to attract businesses.

 

Knowledge partner

Besides investment and programs, there are also many ways in which knowledge sharing happens between the two countries. There are UK firms that are looking to share technology such as in payments for public buses and flood detection/monitoring. UK is also actively partnering with the FinTech Center of Excellence that is coming up in Chennai.

 

There are focus groups in the British Deputy High Commission for each verticals – Smart Cities, Financial Services, Energy, Ease of Doing Business, Healthcare, Skills – to find ways to collaborate

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Field notes of a FinTech Entrepreneur

Contributed By: Meera Siva,CFA

Friday, August 3, 2018, Chennai

FinTech is all the rage now; but imagine starting a fintech venture in Chennai a decade ago. In this candid, interactive session filled with laughter and sense of awe, Srikanth Meenakshi, co-founder and COO of Funds India shared his experiences as a fin-tech entrepreneur and mutual fund investing/advisory. FundsIndia.com is an online financial services platform for investors, since 2008. It manages an AUM of Rs 5,400 crores of about 2 lakh customers, pan India and for NRIs – making it the largest FinTech platform for investment services, by a large margin.

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Srikanth started his career with IBM global services and moved to a startup doing an online brokerage platform called Folio Investing. He then worked at Fannie Mae, handling securitization and capital markets. Srikanth received his MS in Computer Science from Oregon Graduate Institute, USA.

Early years

Srikanth found the problem space in 2008 based on his pain in making mutual fund and other investments, as with many entrepreneurs. “I also needed a job, having moved to India from the US”, he adds humorously. The original problem they wanted to solve was to create a financial plan for investors. But it changed to online mutual fund investing.

Srikanth noted that their venture was based on technology and this needed substantial investment in the early years. He and his co-founder had each invested INR 50 lakhs each from their savings in the venture. They had to add to this and there was always need for more money. Raising money was not easy and at one point they had come up with an exit plan – how to shut operations gracefully and continue servicing exiting investors. It did not come to that, but it was very close, he says.

He said that customer confidence, from clients who had never met the team, kept them going during difficult times. “The faith they had in sending the cheque in our name, gave a lot of validation to the idea”, he says.

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Role of research

Funds India has a strong research team to understand and analyze mutual fund investments. While the initial focus was on technology and enhancements continue, the emphasis is on research and analysis to provide the best advise to investors. Srikanth says that investment is knowledge business and domain expertise is critical. “Without that, it becomes a platform, not different from IRCTC”, he notes. In the long run, this differentiation – by creating a knowledge factory – is what will help clients to stick with Funds India.

Srikanth also highlighted the issues of an online platform in engaging with clients. “Unlike an advisor who sits across the table, we are remote and do not have opportunities to interact. So, we must find ways to be connected”, he says. “Marketing gets you customers, research keeps them”, he notes. Their customer stickiness data shows that they have been successful in this.

Funds India also does not believe in churning portfolio. “Using technology to pro-actively monitoring returns and suggesting changes may appear as service. But it is often misleading guidance”, Srikanth says.

Service options

The features in the platform are on par with or in some cases even better than global robo advisory platforms. The platform has tools to provide reports on your portfolio. This includes analysis of stock holdings in different mutual funds in your portfolio to understand overlaps. Investors can also opt for periodic review – say once in six months – of their portfolio. They can always call anytime to clarify. One recent example was when the mutual fund categories was changed by SEBI, investors had many questions and there were calls to understand.

Srikanth feels that tools such as artificial intelligence are buzzwords. There is a lot of structured data and rule-based decisions can be taken. For example, based on the profile of the customer and AUM, audience can be segmented to share messages. You need lots of data to do real big data analytics and only when you deal with unstructured data, require neural networks. “We look at technology to figure out which business pain points can be solved inside and how customer experience can be improved”, he notes.

Mistakes

The success – as measured by revenue and customer growth, funding, team – also had its share of setbacks and was despite mis-steps. Srikanth noted that they must have focused on marketing earlier. “We were a digital business; but we did not do digital marketing for nearly two years”, he says. The company also launched its app only in 2015.

“When people stop their SIP as market goes down, I feel bad that we have not educated investors”, he says.

Short quips

How did you convince your first investor to fund you?

With lots of difficulty.

Does the platform allow investments in equity, FD and other products?

Yes, but why do you need anything beyond mutual funds for retail investors?

How is it dealing with the regulator?

The forewarnings and rumors give sleepless nights. The news finally is usually not so bad.

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Investment Channels – UK and India

Contributed By – Meera Siva, CFA

Date: Friday, July 6, 2018, Chennai

The relation between UK and India, for trade and money, has a long history. UK and India continue to work closely in cross-border investments. In this talk, Sam Prasanth Kumar, Prosperity Adviser at British Deputy High Commission, shared the various programs for investment and collaboration between the two countries in various domains, including fintech.

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Sam fosters relationship and facilitates partnerships between UK and India public and private sector institutions in Ease of Doing Business, Smart Cities and Financial Services, including FinTech. He is well experienced in working with non-profit organizations. He holds a Masters’ degree in Social Work and a Bachelors’ degree in Commerce from Loyola College, Chennai.

Big partner

UK investments into India accounts for 1 in 20 jobs in the formal sector. Likewise, India invests more into the UK than it does into the rest of the EU combined. Last year, Indian firms created the second largest number of new jobs in the UK (Tata Global Beverages, HCL, Reliance, Axis Bank, ICICI, TVS logistics, HCL Insurance BPO, Dr Reddy’s Laboratory, to name a few).

Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry data shows that UK goods exports to India grew by 31.2% in FY 2017-18, at $4.8 billion while imports from India to UK was up 13.6% at $9.7 billion. Research collaboration between UK-India has been on an exponential growth track – from almost 1 million in 2008 to around £400 million by 2021.

There have been many successful partnerships at the company level. For example, Hero Global Design (Hero Cycle) and 42 Gears Mobility Systems from India setup operations in the UK. Westminster Healthcare and Dental Nursing academy of New College Lanarkshire established operations in India. There is also interest from Indian companies to raise funds in the UK through Masala bonds.

Many programs

There are many awards, grants and programs that help foster relations between the two countries. One significant initiative is Chevening Fellowships/Scholarships. Others of interest include Tech Rocketship awards and the recently launched FinTech Rocketship Awards for entrepreneurs. Another interesting award is the India Emerging Twenty (IE20), created by London & Partners and launched by the Mayor of London. Its mission is to discover 20 of India’s most innovative and high-growth companies to help them grow to London.

Some of the channels for partnerships through investment include the Pontaq’s UK-India Innovation Fund and Innovation Lab. Business partnerships are also forged through various groups and organizations such as various City Councils such as London, Manchester as well as business groups. Many cities have City Councils that offer various incentives and information sharing programs to attract businesses.

Knowledge partner

Besides investment and programs, there are also many ways in which knowledge sharing happens between the two countries. There are UK firms that are looking to share technology such as in payments for public buses and flood detection/monitoring. The UK is also actively partnering with the FinTech Center of Excellence that is coming up in Chennai.

There are focus groups in the British Deputy High Commission for each vertical – Smart Cities, Financial Services, Energy, Ease of Doing Business, Healthcare, Skills – to find ways to collaborate.

-MS

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In Conversation with Kenneth Andrade

Contributed By – Karan Sharma, CFA

The Kolkata Chapter of the CFA Society India hosted Mr. Kenneth Andrade, Founder & CIO, Old Bridge Capital in Kolkata on 15th of June 2018 in a conversation about his investment style, investing journey and his experience over the last 25 years in this field.

Q.How has your career shaped up over the last 25 years and what are your learning’s from the last two decades of investing?

A.It takes two complete cycles for a fund manager to fully understand markets. It is then when one realizes that money is made in bear market but to do that one needs to survive over a cycle. A major part of my career over the years has involved assimilation and analysis of data points. The biggest lesson for any budding investor would be to observe bear markets as they give the best learning

Q.How were you able to identify many of the successful consumer franchisee companies at an early stage?

A.In 2007-08 when we bought many of these companies we were actually buying stable cash flow companies at historical low valuations. The main reason was the low valuations these companies were available at because they had not participated in the infrastructure and real estate boom of 2005-08. The best way to look at companies trading at low valuations is looking at which companies are able to earn money in down cycles. This helps in separating from the value traps which are usually the companies trading at relatively low valuations in an industry

Q.How do you view the deleveraging of corporate India and how should an investor views this transformation affecting the corporate climate in the country?

A.In the good time when consistently superior returns on capital are being achieved industries attract capital, which in turn brings competition and depresses the return. The gap between cost of capital and return narrows at this point of time and an investment, which looked attractive some time ago, now turns unviable. When companies go through this cycle we see very less investment coming into the sector at the bottom of the cycle. The returns are not too lucrative to encourage additional capex. The demand for most things in our country is linear and as new supply halts and the demand supply balance now turns in favor of demand is when you find that inflection point in an industry. We see a similar thing happening in the country right now in many sectors where new supply has halted because of unfavorable returns, which can be seen happening in the telecom industry
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Q.Explain the working of the capital cycles with an example of any particular industry?

A.If we have a look at the power sector which was adding capacity relentlessly during 2010-2015 we can see how that depressed returns for the sector as a whole. A slew of capacity is now on stream earning returns below cost of capital, which has now led to a halt in incremental capacity additions in the sector. This has now led to supply demand equation being in the favor of supply at the moment. The demand grows at a linear rate and it will not be long when this equation shifts in the favor of demand. The companies generating free cash flows in today’s times in these sectors would be at advantage because they will be able to gain market share very fast

Q.How do you view capital efficiency and efficient capital allocation

A.The math of efficient capital allocation is well understood. It has to be above cost of capital to make any sense. However, often in industries trading at depressed valuations the returns on capital will be below the cost of capital. This is due to the nature of the capital cycle that the sector is undergoing. The advantage for an investor in these industries is that usually there is no fresh capital coming in the sector and thus finding companies which today are earning below average returns on cost of capital and would go on to achieve higher returns in the future due to the demand supply balance shifting in their favor becomes easier. This is what leads to an expansion in valuations.

Q.Why have you stayed away from investing in the financials sector?

A.The business model of the banks where they leverage the balance sheets 10-15 times makes them more vulnerable to shocks in the ecosystem. This coupled with the facts that valuations for most of the players are trading at historic highs makes me uncomfortable while selecting financials as a place to be putting money in. Also my inabilities to adjust to the hyper growth the sector has witnessed have led to the exclusion of financials in the portfolio.

Q.What are your views on democratization of capital and the reach of leverage to even the weakest section of the society?

A.I believe that there are many new opportunities opening up in the financials space as new sectors like asset management companies, exchanges and small finance banks come in the listed space. This should give a host of opportunities but I would be more comfortable buying them post the next down cycle. Also there is a belief that India will shift from a developing economy to a developed economy over the next decade and as that happens we will see people analyzing consumer trends more rather than annual government budgets
Q.Your thoughts on the whole agriculture & rural India theme and how do you view regulatory risks in this sector?

A.The sector is going through a phase where incremental capital additions have stopped due to regulatory interferences and sub par returns. Over this some companies have been deleveraging their balance sheets while growing well along the way. The profits look depressed but that should change over the cycle. Also one cannot take out the regulatory angle from this equation but the situation could look much different over the next two years.

Q.How do you view the SME space which has brought many smaller companies into the listed space?

A.I believe that post GST & demonetization contrary to popular belief that the smaller companies will become inefficient and wither away the exact opposite should happen. The smaller companies will come into the formal ecosystem and should flourish. This will be due to the ancillarisation of corporate India where the smaller companies will be able to take away market share from the larger players. Also if one is looking at valuations they should look at the peak and trough valuations of small cap companies versus large cap companies. If this data is analyzed we will see that smaller companies have yet not shown significant out performance over the larger companies

Q.How do you manage the poor liquidity in the SME space?

A.The problem of liquidity is prevalent in all spheres. Even larger companies face liquidity pressures when the companies are going through turbulent phases. Also before investing one should not focus too much attention on how would one get out.

Q.How do you construct a portfolio and what determines your largest allocation?

A.My largest position is usually in companies where I will not lose money. That is usually the strongest point of portfolio construction. Also, one cannot be correct on all of the positions and hence the focus should be on not losing capital in the companies where one can go wrong

Q.Do you focus on the macro economic environment before investing in companies?

A.In macroeconomics usually one can spend a lot of time trying to understand the forces and still not get any conclusion. Thus I believe that time is better spent in analyzing companies which will not be overly affected by a worsening macro climate
Q.While looking at value versus growth how do you avoid “value traps”?

A.One cannot always avoid value traps or any thus it is important to have a diversified portfolio so that even if one goes wrong in assessment of a situation it will not have a big impact on the overall portfolio

Q.What are the most important points one should look at before selling a stock?

A.Everyone should try and look at valuations from different angles and not just associate it from one or two ratios like Price to earnings. Many a times analyzing from the point of replacement cost, opportunity cost and other aspects when combined with individual valuation parameters would help in giving  much better picture than a standalone examination via the Price to Earnings ratio

Q.What are your views on corporate governance and do you believe its cyclical?

A.Yes, it is true. The management will mostly be on shareholders side when everything is going wrong but its mostly when things are going great when managements turn towards poor capital allocation

Q.Going by the analogy of Mahabharata if we believe that markets are a “Chakravyuh” and the investors are “Abhimanyu” knowing very easily how to get in but not how to get out, how would you advise us in such a situation?

A.It usually works both ways and it is not always possible to get in and out at the correct time. Sometimes the investor will exit at the wrong time as well but that should be taken as a part of the game and move on.

 

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“Look Through Equity Mutual Funds Beyond Past Performance “ by Vikas Biyani

Contributed by : Mandar Chapekar, CFA

CFA Society India, Pune hosted a session on “Look Through Equity Mutual Funds Beyond Past Performance “by Vikas Biyani on 23rd March 2018. Vikas heads Client Advisory team at Multi-Act. He has 14+ years of experience in the field of equity research, capital markets and portfolio advisory to high net-worth and institutional clients.  He has been associated with Multi-Act since 2003. He has earned his Chartered Accountancy qualification from ICAI in 2003. He is also pursuing his CFA (L-3 Candidate).

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The Crux of the Topic was, while selecting Equity Mutual Funds for investment purpose, various factors to be analyzed, considered by Investor or Financial Advisor apart from just focusing on past performance criteria

Vikas initially started off with discussion by providing statistics on  huge inflows of funds coming into Equity Mutual Funds in recent period and its impact on Market, Performance of Equity MFs especially on Small cap and Mid cap Funds

Thereafter Vikas went on to discuss why past performance should not be the only criteria for selection of mutual funds He elaborated , Mutual Funds themselves mention that past performance is not guarantee of future results . Vikas provided illustration of how Funds selected based on last 3 years performance performed in next 3 Years.  The result was only 1 or 2 funds selected on 3 years past performance basis   appeared in top 10 funds in next 3 years -time period. He also referred to famous Dalbar Study done in US to support the illustration. Again he mentioned about hindsight bias affecting decision making while selecting Equity Mutual Fund based on Past Performance

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He further discussed on general disclaimer of Mutual Funds i.e.  Mutual Fund Investments are subject to Market Risk. He explained his definition of Market Risk i.e.

Market Risk =Quality + Valuations + Technicals

Vikas mentioned that Investor need to think of his/her investment objective i.e. whether the priority is performance or safety first or Momentum or Value.  Accordingly Equity Mutual Fund need to be selected.  One Size Fits All” criteria does not work well over here.

Again Investors suffer from various biases while selecting Mutual Funds viz. Chasing Fads, Hindsight bias , Loss Aversion bias and Urge to act.  They need to take cognizance of these biases

Vikas explained that while selecting Equity Mutual Fund one should consider

  • Consistency in performance rather than recent performance. Again while calculating consistency, rolling period returns can be used to mitigate starting and ending point bias
  • Quality of Portfolio holdings of Equity Mutual Funds Schemes. Funds having exposure to ow quality businesses need to be avoided. Funds having low Drawdowns in Bear Market Phase need to be selected
  • Mutual Funds Schemes having lower/reasonable Valuation (but not at the cost quality) need to be considered as the valuations drive the potential return on the investment. Simple Valuation Metrics like P/E can be used to compare different Mutual Fund schemes
  • Expense Ratio of the Fund need to be considered. Funds having not too high expense ratio need to be considered
  • Funds having not too high portfolio turnover can be considered
  • Process Driven Funds rather than Manager driven Funds can be considered
  • Need to consider Absorption Capacity of Mutual Fund scheme based on Size of AUM and Mandate of the scheme
  • Need to consider Style drift if any of Fund Manager as against stipulated mandate as per the Fund’s objective

Vikas elaborated all above aspects   with apt and real life illustrations which made the session really interesting.

Vikas also provided details of guidelines, SEBI has recently issued to Mutual Funds regarding categorization and rationalization of Mutual Funds Schemes.  The aforesaid guidelines are likely to bring significant change in Mutual Fund Industry.   The impact of implementation of these guidelines may prove past performance of Mutual Fund schemes not very useful. In this scenario, Analysis of Mutual Fund schemes beyond past performance would be critical

All in all it was very good informative and educative session full of real life illustrations which would help attendees to take Rational Investment Decisions while selecting Equity Mutual Fund Schemes

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Workshop on “Behavioral Finance for Wealth Managers” in Pune

                                                                                                                                                  Contributed by: Manish Chandak

CFA Society India, Pune hosted a 4-hour workshop on “Behavioral Finance for Wealth Managers” by Dr. Abhishek Sachan on 26th May 2018. Dr. Abhishek is a CFA Charter holder and has graduated with a PhD from Nirma University in Behavioral Finance. He is currently Finance faculty at School of BFSI, Symbiosis University of Applied Sciences, Indore.

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He started the session by introducing Behavioral Finance and differentiating between Rational Investor and Real Investor. He pointed out that the theoretical Rational Economic Man (REM) does not exist. Behavioral Finance considers investors as real investors. Unlike Rational investors, Real investors have limited information, limited processing capacity and limited time to take decision and have bounded rationality.

He further explained following Emotional Biases and Cognitive Errors with various examples.

Emotional Biases: Emotions affect decisions directly and indirectly; an emotionally biased person gives subjective value to alternatives based upon illogical premises. The decisions of investment may not be based on informational and analytical inputs but on some emotional aspects. These biases stem from impulse, intuition and feelings.

These biases are difficult to correct, usually portfolio managers adapt to the clients which show presence of emotional biases.

  • Loss Aversion
  • Endowment
  • Status Quo
  • Self-Control
  • Regret Aversion
  • Optimism

 

Cognitive Errors: Cognitive errors indicate towards limitations of individuals for basic information processing. Broadly, cognitive errors stem from inability to understand statistics, memory errors, improper reasoning, and underweighting/overweighting new information.

The good thing about them is that to an extent they can be corrected by educating clients.

  • Cognitive Dissonance
  • Ambiguity Aversion
  • Availability
  • Mental Accounting
  • Representativeness
  • Illusion of Control
  • Framing
  • Anchoring & Adjustment
  • Conservatism
  • Self-Attribution Bias
  • Hindsight
  • Overconfidence
  • Confirmation
  • Recency

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He also distributed handouts and discussed various case studies and provided fascinating insights. He suggested that wealth managers should go beyond risk profiling and conduct behavioral profiling based on biases, personality and demographics. He also shared interesting patterns of investors based on demographics and personality.

He suggested following books for those interested in Behavioral Finance:

  • Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management – Michael M Pompian
  • Beyond Greed and Fear – Hersh Shefrin
  • Handbook of Behavioral Finance – Brian Bruce
  • Misbehaving – Richard H Thaler
  • Predictably Irrational – Dan Ariely

This is the first time Pune chapter of CFA Society India hosted 4-hour event. The response to the workshop was overwhelming. The workshop was attended by wealth managers, CFA Society members, CFA candidates and guests. In the end, Sampath Reddy (CIO, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance) felicitated Dr. Abhishek Sachan. This was followed by networking and dinner.

 

 

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Understanding blockchain and demystifying crypto currencies

Contributed By : Vivek Rathi, CFA & Chandra Mohan, CFA

IAIP Hyderabad chapter organized an event on “Understanding Block chain and demystifying Crypto currencies” on 28th April 2018. Ramani ‘Ram’ Ramachandran, CEO and Co-Founder and Gautam Seshadri, CBO and Co-founder of Zenprivex limited were the key speakers for the aforementioned topic.

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Block chain and Crypto currencies being the new buzzwords attract a lot of attention. Likewise, the response was overwhelming and the event was well received. The speakers were equal to the task and kept the audience engaged while unraveling the mystery, which crypto currencies are. Both Ram and Gautam stressed on the need for an alternative to the traditional fiat currency and the gold. They explained how crypto currencies could evolve as an alternative asset class while providing the much needed resiliency and transparency to the currency market. This could eventually remove the intermediator and reduce spurious transactions. All the while they backed their analysis with the data, exhibited in a meticulously prepared presentation.

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Everyone in the audience participated enthusiastically in the Q&A session that was conducted at the end. The session culminated with the lunch being served where again everyone got an opportunity to interact with the guests and satiate their appetite for knowledge. Overall, it was weekend afternoon that was well spent with everyone left asking for more

Few key facts from the session:

  • There are 1500 plus crypto currencies, valued at $400 billion
  • Crypto currencies can be considered proxy of digital gold
  • Crypto N/W’s don’t need to know the counterparty. Anonymity and privacy of transactions are at the heart of Block chain technology
  • Crypto currencies should be considered as technology and not an asset class. The cost of adoption of technology going down
  • A user would need 3-4 billion dollar worth of electricity per day to control 51% of crypto network. Economic incentive is to participate rather than hack the network. This is 10 times the amount needed a decade ago and is expected to increase exponentially
  • Argentina has a very high rate of Bitcoin adoption. Venezuela banned bitcoin because of heightened mining activity as the electricity is very cheap there
  • Crypto currency (Bitcoin) has a very low correlation with any other asset class
  • Bitcoin now accounts for roughly 40% of Crypto market cap
  • Crypto currency fortify trust in incentives (from trust in people)
  • ICO – Initial Coin Offerings. In 2017, $3.9 billion raised through ICO’s

108 token to be launched – Will follow passive Index strategy

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